Is the Entertainment Fading? This Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring

Football match action
The Wolves squad managed 10 fewer scores from open-play situations than at this stage the previous campaign.

A major talking point of England's top flight this campaign concerns the drop of scoring in open play and how clubs have been scoring increasingly from set-plays instead.

When we compare how goals have been scored to matchday 11 the prior season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open-play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer altogether.

Considering the bigger picture, shot attempts sides are producing have seen an incredible drop of 370 in open-play than this time last season.

And despite the significant rise in set-piece goals, we've actually seen only two additional shots generated from them excluding spot-kicks, showing how effective clubs are at discovering methods to score from set-pieces.

Scoring Rates Reveal a Story

301 total goals notched in the first 110 fixtures so far works out at 2.74 scores each match, if maintained for the entire campaign might be the lowest for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69 average).

But just 196 goals scored in open-play averages out 1.78 per fixture and is on course to be the smallest for since 2009-10, since 2009-10 (1.76 average).

That campaign additionally represents the sole English top-flight campaign to experience scoring more frequently from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 per game).

Which Teams Account for This Change?

In terms of scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded the largest drop, scoring just four in 11 games, a reduction of 10 than at this stage the previous campaign.

Outside of Wolves, the EPL's drop in open play goals is predominantly a trend among London clubs, with five of the city's seven teams recording five or more goals fewer from open-play than the previous year.

In fairness, that's largely down to their scoring lots of goals at the beginning of the previous campaign rather than them having difficulty to find the net in open play this campaign.

Conversely City have seen the largest rise, with almost every one of their 23 scores this season coming in open-play.

Set-Piece Success

Comparing the promoted teams with those that were relegated they replaced. Play-off winners Sunderland have netted three extra scores in open-play than the Saints achieved in their opening 11 matches leading to relegation the previous campaign.

In terms of scoring from set-plays (not counting spot-kicks), Arsenal and Chelsea have seen the biggest increase, with both sides compensating for the five fewer scores that they've netted in open-play with an equal amount from dead-ball chances.

Man United have recorded double the number goals from set-pieces as they did in the first 11 matches last season prior to Ruben Amorim took charge, while Sunderland again are more successful at netting than the similar-colored team that went down.

Manchester City appear not to have received the message about scoring more from set-pieces, as they've recorded three fewer than the previous campaign, as have the Reds, although that might be down to the tactical shift they've attempted to adopt.

League-Wide Trends

Six clubs – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and West Ham – are this term's top trend-setters by recording fewer goals from open play and increased from set-pieces, while City stand as the only side to buck the trend to date by achieving the contrary.

It will be fascinating to observe if clubs persist to depend greatly on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they regain their all-round creativity and begin scoring increased totals in open play as well.

Shaun Boyer
Shaun Boyer

Marlene Fischer is a mobility expert with over a decade of experience in automotive leasing and sustainable transport solutions.